Expectations on Valar Morgulis

Author: Benji

The emblematic card of AGoT V1 is back, but for which consequences? In this article, I explain my view on why Valar will require specific mechanics to be played, on contrary to V1. Then, I will analyze the consequences on deckbuilding and metagame, before concluding why I think Valar will harm the game.

Valar Morghulis (VM) was usable by every faction in V1, and not playing it was the consequences of special mechanics that as no interests in cleaning the board, such as Baratheon Knights decks. However, this universality should not be expected in V2 since economy is more restricted. In V1, economic locations were numerous and not limited. Costs were lower, with cards ranging from 0 to 5, but most cards were ranging in [0; 1] and [3; 4], with 4 gold being dominated by 3 on expensive slots characters. Draw was also easier, increasing chances to obtain economic locations and cheap cost characters to start again on your turn of VM. Events were free of cost and attachments (cards that requires characters to be already played, thus inappropriate on a VM turn) were marginal in decks.

This golden age for economy has ended and, as we saw it with Counting Coppers, a plot providing two gold does not allow making a sufficient development at the board, despite in this case having cards to play in hands. Thus, it will become hardest to exploit VM in his main V1 use: reset an unfavorable board to start a new contest, since building a board will become economically compromised. 

What could change inside decks because of the presence of VM? One possible answer could be to decrease the cost of characters, but that’s very unlikely: deckbuilding a competitive decklist in the metagame requires expecting First Snow of Winter (FSoW), thus characters with cost over four gold will continue to be attributed slots. One possible path upon it could be to agree on that, but decrease factions leaders at [6; 7] gold to focus on [4; 5]. In my preliminary view, that’s not a valid option either: V2 is designed to put the emphasis on leaders, and there is a large difference between the impact on game of a good 4 gold character (Theon Greyjoy) and a good 6 gold character (Balon Greyjoy). Thus, because they are so decisive in the fate of games, expensive families' leaders will continue to be played. 

So, in the end, I think that the character economic curve of decks will be leaved mainly unaffected. It’s rather cards played in decks that will change, as well as deck strategies. For example, non-unique characters at 4+ gold cost like Palace Spearman and  Drowned Men. To understand what could happens for the metagame, I consider which houses have the main natural arguments to play VM, and if it could possibly be used efficiently. If yes, I try to guess what consequences it could have for families forced to adapt.

As many players already noticed it, Greyjoy as the main natural arguments to do it. They are able to exploit the advantage of a cleaned board since their strategy rely on unopposed challenges, and are the most able to deal with the drawback of VM : low economy, killing his own characters and having no claim.

Considering economy, Fealty and Euron Greyjoy are of decisive help for that. His ability allowing searching for your opponents’ Kingsroad (Kr) is curing the problem. Your opponent could, of course, not play a Kr. But this is unlikely: they are forced to play cards to counter your rush, and you are still able to pass a We Do Not Sow on any +1 gold location.

On the drawback of killing his own character, The Iron Mines and Aeron Greyjoy are already played, and you can see the last not only as a way to bypass death, but also as an economic tool since he marshals a character.  Risen from the Sea will have to find his place in decks, since VM decrease the importance of making a good setup; Greyjoy will have the trade-off of putting more non-setupable cards in decks. Bodyguard is also to consider, even if they will not easily setup in GJ due to the lack of Lord and Lady at cheap cost.

About dealing with no claim, there is the already dominant card Seastone Chair, what will allow you to make a targeted military claim on a turn of board reconstruction. If opponent’s big character has survived to VM, it could dies immediately anyway, and same thing for character marshaled on this turn.

The only mattering problem of Greyjoy with VM is to lack intrigue icon, thus hardly being able to damage opponent’s hand, something desirable when you play VM.

As a consequence of the non-loyalty of The Iron Mines and their universal efficiency, as well as the excellence of Theon and Asha, Banner of the Kraken is likely to flourish on the metagame.

On other factions, two seems very likely to appreciate VM: Martell and Lannister

Martell is perhaps the most able to gain benefits from VM. His characters generally have low

STR, making a Martell player dominated at board contest. Thanks to cards like Nymeria and Attainted, Martell are still able to dominate intrigue challenge and reduce opponent hand. These two faction characteristics are solid arguments for playing Valar. In addition to them, competitive cards played in Martell decks deal well with Valar: His Viper Eyes, Bastard Daughter, The Long Plan are excellent for preparing it. Post-valar Vengeance for Elia send back military claim on the Valar turn, Confinement grant you some tranquility and Ghaston Grey put your opponent in difficulty, since he probably played his main economic plot at start. As minor arguments, Arianne Martell and Quentyn Martell synerge well with the plot and Tyene Sand or Tears of Lys allow to have an improved military claim.

Lannister can also benefit from VM, but mainly because Tywin and Tyrion provides ways of dealing with the low economy of the plot, and because Lannister are the strongest in intrigue, they are able to wipe out hand before turning to the board. But they lack efficient way of bypassing the other drawbacks of the plot.

One interesting thing is the new Tyrion LoCR: his ability perfectly plays around VM. On the preparation turn, he allows you to draw and return crucial characters inside hands. On the VM turn, he will provide you economy to ambush characters or military claim. Note that Clan mechanics already have Burned Men and Moon Brother for efficient play, the big matter being to save Tyrion from death.

In the near future Lannister will have several orientations to deal with VM: Fealty intrigue, Banner of the Kraken, Clan. But hard to make any expectations on what will rise, and simply if it will.

The rest of the metagame is more likely to adapt to the presence of VM rather than playing it.

Targaryen will probably put into their decks Fire and Blood  to resist to the plot, and consistently play Khal Drogo in *3 in order to “punish” opponents clearing their boards from low cost characters. Due to Mirri Maaz Duur, Dracarys and Drogo, Targaryen has aggressive moves to destabilize an opponent and prevent him from serenely preparing his VM turn.

Stark will be affected, since they rely on board construction (as Night Watchs does) and have a delicate economic curve. They have few natural saves, only Jory Cassel, and will probably include Bodyguard rather than Milk of the Poppy in their decks.

Baratheon and Tyrell are difficult to anticipate. They both have arguments to benefit from the plot but not major, evident ones. And the article runs long, thus I prefer skip this question.

My overall conclusion is that VM will change the metagame, but probably only to harm the game. Since decks will not change drastically their composition and only specific mechanics will gain large advantage on playing it, a so drastic effect of killing all characters will only generate chaos in the game, on the contrary of the original main use of the card: Rebalancing the game.